The first quatrain - defines for us, when projecting for 2011, as date of his execution just shows this year. In quatrain present geo-referencing - the Black Sea, so it is logical to assume that the events will take place there. It is no secret that tensions between Russia and Georgia after the 2008 war, and perhaps this story will be continued. In 2011, there should be no election in either the U.S. or Russia, nor in Georgia since time acting president ends later. It is difficult to imagine that more or less sensible, U.S. President, which is the Obama come into conflict with Russia over Georgia, so let me throw this version (which does not exclude such events under the new U.S. president in 2012-2013.). Finish until the issue with Georgia and we consider another hypothesis. There is another "hot spot" in the Black Sea region - it is Ukraine. This country was never quiet, constantly "gap" between east and west. Too much of it consists of different halves. Therefore, to predict that 2011 will be calm for Ukraine, will probably be too bold. You can assume the possibility of a coup. Dissatisfied with the pro-Russian Yanukovych's policy, the U.S. may destabilize the country. But ... wise Obama is unlikely to go unless it hostile to the Russian environment. There is a likelihood of this scenario under a new U.S. president in 2012-2013. So maybe 2011 will be a year of instability for Ukraine or Georgia, but under the current alignment of political forces likely will not. But there is another thorny issue in the region - Greco-Turkish conflict. It's a smoldering fire that could erupt at any moment. None of the problems, poisoned relations between the two countries has not been solved. There is no agreement on air space, territorial waters and the rights to the sea bed in the Aegean Sea. The Cyprus problem, although it does not apply directly to the bilateral relations between Ankara and Athens (still Cyprus an independent state), however, is a stumbling block. In 2011, this conflict may well get a "second wind", the more so because it does not need "help" the United States. Maybe Russia wants to help Greece in the conflict and sends in the Mediterranean fleet. And if Turkey closes in response to the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, then this will be the most "chain and rope" from the fourth line ... But this is probably too bold assumption.